JULY 22, 2008

TAKING THE TEMPERATURE OF SUMMER TRAVEL. With peak summer travel season in full swing there’s an onslaught of alarmist yammering that summer vacation and the entire travel industry are in some sort of death spiral. Seriously folks…sure, things are not as peachy as in previous years and everyone is pulling back to some degree. But is all the "doom and gloom" really necessary? To wit:

  • Planes are still packed to the gills. The average airline load factor for June was down just 1.7 percent compared to last June.

  • Despite all the predictions of small towns left high and dry due to flight cutbacks and speculative “you might not be able to get there from here” stories, airlines are flying at full capacity this summer. As a matter of fact, there are slightly more seats available this summer compared to last. The proposed 10-15 percent cuts in seat capacity don’t come until October or so, and with oil tumbling $16 in the last week, airlines may not have to cut all the way to the bone after all.

  • Delta just eked out a profit for the second quarter (don’t believe the headlines about the $1.2 billion loss grossly inflated by special “one time charges.”) 

  • In June, AirTran set two all-time records: Its load factor for the month was 84.7 percent and it enplaned more than 2.3 million passengers for the month, a 4.2 percent increase from June 2007.

  • Airline on-time performance continues to be dreadful in New York and Chicago, but that's nothing new. Elsewhere, and including ATL, things are running relatively smoothly considering it's peak summer travel season.

  • While hotel occupancy growth is flattening, hotel rates are holding steady, except in certain markets like Hawaii where they are down 20-30%; Las Vegas and Orlando rates are also down. However, rates in major business travel cities like New York, Boston, Chicago and San Francisco are up compared to last year.

  • Fares for fall and holiday travel are higher (like everything else dependent on oil) , but not unrealistically so. Average airfares are generally about 20 percent higher than last year.

  • We have found fares in the $400 range for non-peak transcon flights between ATL and the west coast around both Thanksgiving and Christmas. Fares between ATL and New York, Washington DC or Chicago for Christmas are in the $275 range. (Fares searched July 21, 2008 and subject to change.) Not bad and not much different than what you’d have paid last year.

Are we missing something here? Have things deteriorated THAT much? Or is summer just the time that everyone loves to complain about travel? Let us know what you are thinking and set us straight if you have too. Maybe our rose colored glasses need some adjusting? LET US KNOW.

GOOD ON HERTZ. There’s little worse than the ripped off feeling you get when you just don’t have time to stop to fill up the rental car on the way back to the airport. Rental car companies typically gouge you by filling the tank up at the rate of about $8 gallon. Hertz has done an about face on this sleazy practice. Starting now, Hertz will fill up the car for you at local market prices, and ding you an extra $7 fee for doing so. That’s fair. We hope other rental car companies take note. (Always confirm this when picking up the car since the rule is new and employees may not be familiar with it….)

OH NO. THIS DOES NOT SOUND GOOD. Airport baggage theft report from the AJC: “An Atlanta police officer watched over the travelers' luggage at the airport. Then he spotted a man — someone he had arrested before — walking away from the Delta baggage claim carousel with two large bags. When confronted, Willie Minter, 49, admitted the bags weren't his and offered an explanation: ‘Officer, I have a drug problem,’ he said, according to an Atlanta police report.” Full article here. Hmmm. Now that the airlines are charging us fees for checked bags, maybe they should provide the staff to start matching bags with claim tickets—a common practice until the last travel downturn (2001) when airlines cried poor. One more reason to never check a bag…. 

FIRST BAG FOR $15 ON NWA. Delta’s proposed merger partner Northwest Airlines has added the new (and nearly standard) $15 fee for the first checked back. But Delta is standing firm for now on it’s decision not to impose the fee on the first bag, but has added the $25 fee for the second (Medallions exempted). 

AA BEEFS UP IN ATL. When all you read about is airline cuts, it's nice to hear about an addition: Starting Sept 3, American will add one more nonstop from ATL to New York La Guardia for a total of five per day. Why fly AA to NY? Because you can scamper right through that quick and easy T concourse security line and be on your plane in a matter of minutes. Same thing on your return.

SADNESS IN SEATTLE. Your TICKET editor got a little misty eyed in Seattle last week when he spied upon the darkened shell of a once busy, but recently shuttered Crown Room out on the Delta end of SEATAC’s concourse A. All that’s left behind the glass windows overlooking the concourse are a few wires hanging from the ceiling and some old b&w arrivals and departures monitors mounted in walls.  

DELTA REGIONAL PARTNER ASA GETTING BETTER? We've been very down on ASA due to the consistent, frequent and negative feedback from TICKET readers and from government stats showing bottom of the barrel performance for many years. However, ASA is claiming to be turning this ship around and sent us the following stats to back up the claim.

  • ASA has steadily improved performance month-over-month since November 2007.
  • In May, ASA completed 99.8% of our nearly 24,000 flights and operated more than 83.8% of those flights on-time.
  • In May ASA had the highest flight completion rate of any regional carrier and tied for the second spot ranking overall for all carriers reporting to the DOT
  • In May ASA earned the No. 1 spot for fewest complaints by passengers

Is ASA right? Are you noticing an operational turnaround? Let us know!


THE TASTE OF THE TICKET. "This was the first time I had experienced Singaporean cuisine, though I generally fancy Asian food.  I was not sure what to expect.  " Want to hear more? Then check out the latest dispatch from our fearless taste-tester in THE TASTE OF THE TICKET!   

DID YOU KNOW....that THE TASTE OF THE TICKET is one of the most popular elements of THE TICKET newsletter-- thousands of readers check it out every month!


DELTA EKES OUT A PROFIT. Despite the screeching about Delta’s so-called loss of $1.04 billion…when you take out the special “one time charges” of $1.2 billion, you’ll know that it actually had a net income (or profit) of $137 million in the second (April-June) quarter. (No bad considering April was weaker than last year since Easter fell in March this year.)  How’d they do it? Analysts quoted in the NY Times attribute the gain to about $170 million in new passenger fees and a pretty good fuel hedging program. Delta hedged nearly half of its fuel consumption during the second quarter, leading to an average fuel price of $3.13 a gallon which may sound like a bargain, but it’s a 50 percent increase from last year when it paid $2.09 a gallon.

COMMENTS ABOUT DELTA’S NEW PAY WITH MILES. Interesting insight regarding Delta’s new Pay With Miles option from our colleague Tim Winship’s column on SmarterTravel.com. “Delta and its credit card partner, American Express, recently introduced Pay with Miles, permitting members of Delta's program to redeem their miles at a value of 1 cent each for Delta tickets. The move was clearly an attempt to shore up the program's declining value. When program members do the math, however, they will find that using Pay with Miles amounts to a 1 percent rebate, which can only be applied toward the purchase of Delta flights. That may suffice as a stopgap measure. But as consumers discover that other credit cards offer a 1 percent cash rebate—that can be used to purchase anything, not just Delta tickets—the Pay with Miles option loses much of its luster.” 

HOTEL SHUFFLE. Wyndham Worldwide now owns Microtel and Hawthorne Suites which means Hawthorne's affiliation with the Hyatt Gold Passport program is over. (In case you have not been watching, Wyndham grew out of Cendant Corp and now includes brands such at Ramada, Wingate Inn, Days Inn, Howard Johnson, and of course Wyndham Hotels and Resorts. The frequency program for the group is now called Wyndham Rewards (formerly TripRewards.)

CUTS THAT DON’T REALLY HURT. All these airline schedule cuts that the media is screaming about are on routes that always seemed a little bit thin to us in the first place. We could really look at this as a time of "right-sizing" instead of downsizing. Atlanta to Ottawa on an RJ? Salt Lake to Yakima? Charlotte to Sacramento or Atlanta to San Francisco on United? These were all routes that the legacy carriers added during the bubblicious days that had many of us scratching our heads in the first place. I mean, how many people were actually flying on that that daily RJ between ATL and Leon, Mexico anyway? And while flying non-stop from ATL to Edinburgh was nice for the year or so that it was offered, it's not like I'm going to change plans now that I have to stop once on the way there.  --cjm


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WE LUV SFO. SkyTrax, one of the best of the many airport surveys out there, recently named San Francisco International as the best airport in North America. The west coast gateway no doubt won due to the popularity of its sleek new international terminal, which puts the airport on par with other winners like Singapore Changi, Seoul Incheon and Hong Kong. The rest of the airport, including Delta’s facilities in terminal 2 and AirTran’s in Terminal 1 are old, but still efficient. Other top airports in the US were Vancouver and Dallas/Ft Worth (which is something of a mystery to us. Are we missing something?) Best airport in Europe: Munchen. (www.worldairportawards.com

ARRIVE IN STYLE IN MANHATTAN: Book a full coach or first class ticket to New York on Delta and you’ll get a free helicopter ride to the East 34th Street Heliport (TSS) or the Downtown Manhattan Heliport at Wall Street (JRB). Full coach fares and first class fares are both around $900 round trip, so be sure and book first class! Delta/US Helicopter details here.  

ON TIME PERFORMANCE: While we’ve gotten through the summer without any major snafus around the big holiday weekends of Memorial Day and July 4, we are still about on par with last year for overall on-time performance—meaning that about 25% of flights are late. Like last summer, most of the problems occur in the New York region, so if you can avoid that area as well as Chicago, you will most likely avoid the most painful delays. Despite what you are hearing about airline schedule cuts, few if any have happened in NYC, so congestion and capacity issues remain unsolved. For those lucky enough to be flying west of the Mississippi, significant or persistent flight delays are few and far between.

DELTA 747? If Delta succeeds in its merger with Northwest (which currently flies 747's), you'll once again see Delta 747's jetting about the globe just like in the good old 70's when Delta had a few of these big boys in its fleet flying between Atlanta and Dallas, Detroit, Miami and LAX.

Delta 747

THIS AND THAT…. To enhance revenue, Delta and United have raised the price of inflight alcoholic bevs in coach to $6 from $5 (poor flight attendants who have to make change.)…. Also, Delta is going to start adding advertisements to the boarding passes you print from your home or office PC….. A guy who had to spend the night in an airport in Germany has created the Mini Motel, a one-person tent complete with air mattress, pillow, reading light, alarm clock and pillow ($39.95), and has sold it to a handful of airports for distribution during large scale overnight flight delays…United will reduce its daily round trips between ATL and Denver from three to two starting in November.  

PRICEY CHANGES. It’s getting very expensive to change your mind. Starting this month on Delta and several other major carriers, the change fee for domestic tickets increases to $100 from $75 if you ticket was booked at delta.com. It’s $150 if it was booked via a travel agency. The fee is up to $200 or more for international tickets (+$50 for those not booked on delta.com).  

ADIOS LEON, BONJOUR LYON. Delta’s cut it’s nonstop RJ flights to Leon, in north central Mexico, which was an easy way to get to the wonderful town of San Miguel de Allende. (You can still get there on Continental via Houston.) At about the same time, Delta has added new nonstops from New York-JFK to Lyon, France, France’s second largest city and its gateway to the Alps.  

DELTA CUTS. Adding to the previous and expanding list of schedule cuts, from ATL, Delta will eliminate flights between ATL and Vienna, Toledo, and Lansing. (Know of other Delta cuts? They don't announce them, so it's hard to keep track. If you hear about one, let us know!

MIDWEST AIR CUTS. Milwaukee-based Midwest Airlines announced big cuts to its schedule this week with 90 daily departures to 28 cities, down from 118 daily departures to 38 cities. However, ATL-Milwaukee flights on Midwest were spared the axe.


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MAILBAG:

We've gotten a little behind on publishing our MAILBAG, which readers say is one of their favorite parts of THE TICKET. So here's a couple months worth of the best comments and user-generated info out there! Thanks, folks!

DELTA'S INTERNATIONAL (TRANSOCEANIC) 757’s OH MY! 

NIGHTMARE. “I was on the 757 from JFK to Brussels about three weeks ago.  My upgrade to Business Elite did not clear – those upgradeable fares are becoming more and more of a scam – therefore, I was stuck in economy class. It was a nightmare.  The economy seats on the 757 are seemed significantly more cramped compared to the 767-300 economy seats – absolutely no leg room.  The video-on-demand was not functioning – even after attempts by the crew to reset.  There was no choice of meal in economy – it was chicken or chicken.  Also, the cabin crew seemed to be disoriented and confused – clearly the lack of space.  I’ve never been so glad to get off a plane upon arrival. --C Wilkinson 

NO BIG DEAL. “Just saw your ‘international 757’ item on the latest version of The Ticket...  I don't understand the big deal.  Back in the day, we spent 9+ hours on international 707 and DC-8 flights and thought nothing of it.  And certainly those planes didn't have video at your seat, etc.! The airlines are right-sizing aircraft on many routes and who can blame them with the high cost of fuel!” –M Texeira 

ROBBED.  “Recently I flew to Manchester on a ‘Domestic’ 757 from JFK.  The BusinessElite cabin was abysmal.  Same as a Domestic configuration across the Atlantic and J class fares to boot.  I was deceived to say the least.  Actually, I feel I was robbed.  Never again!!  If Delta wants to do this, then sell the space as a downgraded business class cabin like they in the Caribbean, with fares to match.  $6,000 for MAN-JFK-MAN on a Domestic 757 is simply robbery and deception!” --P Katopodis  

CAN’T IMAGINE. “I just wanted to let you know that Delta is flying a 757 internationally from Atlanta - on their Shannon route.  I cannot imagine 8 hours on a narrow-body...what are they thinking??” --J Pickard 

COMFORTABLE. “I just wanted to let you know that my wife and son arrived in Edinburgh yesterday from Atlanta via JFK on one of those 757s. She said that the flight was comfortable and that our 11 year old son really enjoyed the on demand entertainment system in the seat in front of him. Just some feedback for you! Thanks for all that you do in putting together The Ticket; I really enjoy reading it and usually forward it to lots of friends.” --R Webb

DELTA CHARGING $25-$50 FOR FREQUENT FLYER TICKETS:  

NO LOYALTY. “Doesn't Delta realize this will be counterintuitive?  Now I have no reason to remain loyal to Delta, so instead of continuing to fly Delta and earning miles that will just end up costing me at least $25 to use, I'll start using other options like Air Tran.  Good riddance, Delta.”  --D Blum 

HONESTY. “Get real. I haven't finagled a free "free" ticket out of them in years. There are always costs. At least this one is honest and upfront.” --J Sinton 

FAT CHANCE. “Delta says, ‘Our hope is that this surcharge is temporary, and should fuel prices subside from current levels, we will reevaluate it.’ Fat chance!  It is my experience that when any business, not just a hard-up business, taps into a new revenue stream they don't normally give it up unless forced to do so by law and since these miles are given by the airlines there is no way that will happen.” –S Gaskins   

BUSY REDEEMING. “As fortune would have it, I am redeeming almost half my FF stockpile in August prior to the new fee.  Based on the small number of seats reserved for award tickets, this is just another way to gouge Delta's best customers and show that they really are not committed to customer service, as if anyone had any doubt left.  I'm sure we can expect Delta to jump on the first checked bag bandwagon any time now. They still managed to gouge me by saying that there was a problem completing my award tickets online and that I needed to contact an agent thus automatically adding the $25 fee for an agent to each ticket.” --R Schmetzer 

A BIT O’HISTORY. “A hundred years ago the railroads were doing comparable things to their freight and passenger service customers and look where they are today. Fifty years ago, it was the banks and the telephone company (AT&T). Ditto. Today, it's the legacy airlines, and I'll bet you my ticket home that their market share and societal relevance will end up on a par with the old telecom monopoly or the Pennsylvania Railroad by the end on the 2020s. This is the dying gasp of a soon-to-be extinct monopolist. It's life inside the fish bowl for Mr. Anderson and his ilk.” --A Selden 

WHAT’S THE DIFF? “With Delta, whether there is a charge for Award Travel or not is really immaterial; Delta award tickets, even months and months in advance are few and far between, so what difference does it make if there is a surcharge?  You won't be able to redeem your miles anyway.” --J Morris

GOLD RESERVE PARKING AT ATL:

“Just an FYI since I have not seen one recently regarding the Gold Reserve Lots at ATL...as of June 1 there are now over 900 people on the wait list. There has been no turnover since last year according to the parking management office. Thanks for the informative site! It is a real help in my travel planning.” --S Taylor 

MORE SCHEDULE CUTS:

PUERTO VALLARTA. “Delta's non-stop ATL to PVR (Puerto Vallarta) has been trimmed from 7 days to 3 days a week (F/Sa/ Su)”  --T Blaisdell 

BANGOR. “We have a summer home in Maine, and so I do a lot of flying in and out of Bangor in the summer, often through Boston. Not this year.  I had a meeting this week in Boston, and my husband actually had to drive down and pick me up because there are no afternoon or evening flights from Boston to Bangor on Saturday.  There used to be afternoon/evening flights every hour or 2 between Boston and Bangor.  It's making vacation and business travel much harder this year.” --L Peterson    

ATHENS. “As a resident of suburban Athens I frequently travel out of either Athens (AHN) or ATL depending on what kind of great fares I can get. I was disappointed to learn that US Airways has abruptly discontinued all service from AHN as of 5/22. Thanks for the great Ticket newsletters.” --T Moore 

GOT A COMMENT, TIP OR ADVICE YOU'D LIKE TO SHARE? Email us and it could end up in a future issue of THE TICKET! Send yours to ticketatl@travelskills.com. Thanks!

July 14, 2008


VIDEO: TICKET Editor Chris McGinnis discusses the state of summer travel on FOX NEWS!


 

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