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Confirmed: Southwest to fly to Hawaii. Unconfirmed: Lower fares

Southwest officials announced new Hawaii service at an employee conference. (Image: Southwest)

Southwest Airlines has confirmed that it plans to fly to Hawaii, probably beginning next year – a decision that could bring sharply lower fares for all travel to the islands. Or maybe not…

Since the airline started to take delivery of new Boeing 737MAX 8 aircraft, there has been widespread speculation that it would use the planes – which can fly 500 nautical miles farther than its 737-800s – to begin service.

And now the company has announced its intention to do just that. Southwest said it will seek FAA approval to gain ETOPS certification for its new 737s – a regulatory requirement for flying them to Hawaii. ETOPS stands for Extended-range Twin-engine Operational Performance Standards.

Assuming it gains that approval, Southwest said it “plans to begin selling tickets in 2018 for service to Hawaii.” It’s not clear yet if flights will also begin in 2018. 

However, the company hasn’t yet said which airports will get the new flights – only that “service details are to be announced at a later date.”

Southwest’s new 737MAX aircraft will provide the extra range needed for Hawaii flights. (Image: Southwest)

Will Southwest bring lower fares to the islands? Maybe. But don’t get too excited yet.  Atlanta expected the so-called Southwest Effect to reduce fares when Southwest took over AirTran’s hub there. Instead, fares went up and the number of flights went down. “Airfares have gone up so much that Atlanta had the largest year-over-year increase in average domestic fares in the country,” reported the Atlanta Journal-Constitution in 2014.

However, the move should provide a boost to Southwest’s Rapid Rewards program, which has always suffered from not having the reach of other airline programs that can fly members to Hawaii or around the world.

My best guess is that we’ll enjoy a temporary decrease in fares as airlines compete with Southwest on introductory fares, but in the long run the lowest fares will remain about the same, currently, stubbornly, rarely sinking below the $400 average roundtrip. Why? Because it’s not cheap to fly to Hawaii—  it’s about 2,500 miles from the US west coast, a route that requires more fuel and more expensive planes. And increasingly, Southwest’s recent moves have shown that it’s not always a low fare leader.

Southwest officials made the announcement to a gathering of its employees in southern California. Joining the conference via satellite from Honolulu were Hawaii Governor David Ige and Southwest president Tom Nealon, who predicted that the carrier’s entry “will be a game-changer in the US. to Hawaii market.”

That statement is probably a reference to something called the Southwest Effect – a concept introduced in the 1990s in a Transportation Department analysis of domestic airline competition. Back then DOT found that whenever Southwest enters a new market, it tends to result in an increase in traffic and a reduction in fares for all competitors in that market.

Related: Is Southwest really a low fare carrier? 

Hawaii is way WAY out there– bout 2,500 miles from the west coast. (Image: Google)

In a recent detailed analysis of the likelihood that Southwest would start flying to Hawaii, the financial website Seeking Alpha predicted this would likely lead to a fare war. “In our opinion, the most important impact of the Southwest Effect in Hawaii is that it tends to lead to a dramatic reduction in fares, given that we believe travel demand to Hawaii is relatively inelastic (so passengers are unlikely to increase much),” the website said.

Seeking Alpha predicted that Southwest “could easily add at least 10 daily flights to Hawaii, to start with.” Based on the amount of market share that Southwest controls, it suggested that likely airports to host Hawaii flights would include Los Angeles, San Francisco, Oakland, San Jose, Phoenix, San Diego, Seattle and Portland.

What do YOU think will happen to Hawaii fares when Southwest enters that market? Leave your comments below.

Southwest Airlines Hawaii

An image tweeted out by Southwest Airlines announcing new flights to Hawaii

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Comments

  1. For the leisure travelers flying once in a while, Southwest makes sense, with no change fees and up to 2 free checked luggages, and friendly crew it’s hard to beat. However, for the business travelers, it doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to fly Southwest. For one, SW frequent flyer program doesn’t allow me to go overseas. As much as I dislike flying UA with their horrible customer service, I have to stick with them due to their extensive route system especially flying out of SFO and the miles accumulated and dollar spent have enabled me to fly 2 round trips free (paid tax) to Sydney Australia. I wouldn’t have been able to do that on Southwest.

  2. While business travelers may eschew Southwest cuz they don’t get treated special, we leisure travelers like knowing the folks up front aren’t any better off. As for fares, while the advertised base fares may seem lower on the big 3, when we leisure travelers add in the cost of a checked bag, SWA almost always wins. Besides, Soutwest’s workers, from the ticket agent to the ramp worker always seem pretty happy. Especially compared to United employees, the most bitter, unhappy people I have ever seen!

  3. I agree fully with Carl Black’s assessment. Southworst has not been a low cost carrier for many years and generally I can always find lower fares and better service.

  5. Thanks for the great coverage, Chris. I’ve seen so many excited about the possibility of future service, and the enthusiasm has definitely puzzled me. I think many have been brainwashed into believing WN is a low-fare carrier, when they really haven’t been one for many years. They are consistently one of the highest-priced carriers when I compare them with traditional airlines, and I can’t imagine that service to HI would be any different. I know folks are excited about the possibility of using Companion Pass, but we don’t know if that will actually be an option. With every other domestic carrier, companion certificates are only valid for travel within the continental US (except for those who permanently reside in AK or HI).

  6. From Seattle to Honolulu it is a 6 hour flight. No much of a comfortable ride in the economy thin seats that Southwest currently uses.

  7. Totally agree, better hard and soft product for HA. Even if HA uses all narrowbody to Hawaii, I would still fly HA.

  8. $200 bucks round trip to Hawaii – it’s about time, can’t wait till tickets go on sale…Aloha

  9. I tend to agree with the direction of your guess on fares, Chris. A lowering of fares on other carriers (notably Alaska) in advance of Southwest’s start date and for a period afterward. Then based on their impact on loads, a possible rise again. The good news is that Winter fares are already lower than a year ago due to the additional lift.

  11. I talked to HA FA’s on my last flight a couple of weeks ago. The narrow bodies are to compete with other airlines’ narrow bodies on smaller routes such as KOA or OGG. The A330’s are still going to be flying their usual routes. While I am happy that SW is coming in, if the price is the same I will still fly HA and wide body. Better hard and soft product.

  12. I think you mean planning some long weekends in 2018 to sit at your computer and buy tickets. There is no evidence that flights will operate in 2018

  13. As a resident of Hawaii who flys Hawaiian regularly to mainland .Do not expect much to change. Alaskan and United and Virgin Atlantic (Alaska) now etc. all fly to my Island Maui now.Rates have not changed much and don’t expect it too.SW no service and small planes even new one cannot compare to Hawaiian Air or their service. It’s too long of a flight to really see savings even with economy Airlines. Just going to add more people to islands that are already too crowded…. sad to say no price savings will make the Hawaii vacation cheaper. And Honolulu airport is already beyond control crowded where most economy minded people go….

  15. I know about the extra fee to facilitate the boarding and checking in. But it’s also the whole onboard experience, the IFE, meals…etc. And also, with the HA’s A330 or 767, you can’t beat the 2-4-2 or 2-3-2 seating. It’s much more comfy. Granted that WN does still offer an advantage with free checked baggage and no change fees.

  17. Certainly airfares will fall but it’s hard to choose WN when HA offers a better product, IFE, widebody comfort, meal and assigned seating. Over the years, flew less and less on WN as their check in process is terribly annoying. Hate having to set an alarm for 24 hours before flight time to check in and even then no guarantee to get A group.

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