trends Archives - TravelSkills

Global travelers shrug off political, terror concerns

June 7, 2017

No sign of a Trump Slump yet in international visitor arrivals to the U.S. (Image: Jim Glab)

The U.S. travel industry has been predicting a “Trump slump” – i.e., a drop-off in foreign visitors due to the Administration’s tougher entry policies – and terrorist events in Europe were also expected to inhibit international travel. But so far, none of that seems to be happening.

U.S. travel officials expected to see evidence of the so-called Trump slump starting in April, following the Administration’s attempts – subsequently thwarted by the courts – to ban arrivals from several Muslim-majority countries and to generally impose “extreme vetting” on foreign arrivals.

But the U.S. Travel Association (USTA) said this week that instead of dropping, the number of foreign visitors to the U.S. actually increased in April by 4 percent over the same month a year ago.

USTA president Roger Dow admitted that the organization is “surprised” by that increase, citing it as ”evidence of the U.S. travel sector’s remarkable resilience.” Still, he urged the Trump Administration to make it clear that foreign visitors are still welcome.

“Even though we’re encouraged by these strong figures, we’ll continue to urge the administration to more publicly send the message that while the U.S. is closed to terror, it remains open for business,” Dow said. “We should not take it for granted that this trend will sustain, and the 15.3 million American jobs that depend on travel are not worth putting at risk. A simple and clear welcome message will go a long way in that regard.”

That rise in international arrivals did not hold true in all markets. April arrivals from the U.K. were down 6 percent – and that was well before the latest flap between Trump and London’s mayor. The U.S. ban on in-cabin laptops on flights from the Middle East and North Africa is also likely hurting traveler numbers in those markets, as evidenced by Emirates’ recent decision to scale back flight frequencies to the U.S.

Terror events in Europe haven’t hurt tourism either. (Image: Jim Glab)

The travel industry news website Skift.com reported a similar finding from the annual meeting of the International Air Transport Association (IATA) – the leading global airline trade organization — this week in Cancun. Skift interviewed airline CEOs from Europe and Latin America and found no indications of a Trump slump in their traffic to the U.S.

Bloomberg News was also at the IATA conference, and its interviews with the chiefs of International Airlines Group (parent of British Airways and Iberia) and Lufthansa likewise found no evidence that that the latest terror attacks in Europe were having a negative impact on inbound traffic. Similar events in previous years were usually followed by a fall-off in visitors.

“It would be terrible if people start just considering that this is routine or normal, but we haven’t seen an impact on bookings,” IAG CEO Willie Walsh told Bloomberg News. “In the past, we would expect it to have some impact, but we haven’t seen anything.”

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‘Big Data’ tips for saving on summer travel

April 27, 2017

Start booking soon for best prices on summer vacation travel. (Image: Jim Glab)

Tech giant Adobe has come out with its annual travel report, compiled by sifting through enormous amounts of data from travel booking sites and social media, and it has offered some tips for getting the best deals on summer vacation trips.

For example, Adobe says that travelers looking to save on air fares should book domestic flights 76 to 112 days in advance, and international flights at least 125 days out, “assuming potential flight changes are not an issue.” Also, booking Saturday flights can save an average of 11 percent, while trips scheduled for Mondays can cost 11 percent more.

The absolute busiest travel period this summer (just like every year) will be the four-day Fourth of July holiday, when U.S. consumers will spend $3.7 billion on travel, Adobe said. That’s followed by the Memorial Day weekend ($2.9 billion) and Labor Day weekend ($2.8 billion).

But interestingly, Adobe says that growth in summer travel is down compared to last year. The report says, “Overall spending on summer travel by US consumers will grow by +5.1% (66% lower than last year), totaling $98.02B. Slower growth is mainly coming from nearly flat air and hotel bookings, likely the results of significant price increases. Growth has slowed for airlines and hotels mainly due to nearly flat number of airline reservations and decreasing hotels, but is bolstered by an increase in prices.”

Domestic air travel costs are running 4.8 percent higher than last year. (Image: Jim Glab)

As of March 2017, year-over-year domestic air fare prices have increased by 4.8 percent. International costs have gone up 4.7 percent, Adobe said, with one big exception: Fares for travel from the U.S. to Europe dropped 6.2 percent.

Domestic hotel prices went up by 3.7 percent over the same 12-month period, the report notes, and it recommends booking rooms 33 days in advance for the best price. Because most hotels have lenient cancellation policies “consumers can book earlier, but cancel if a better deal is found at day 33,” Adobe said.

U.S. travelers making domestic trips should see less competition for flights and hotel rooms from foreign visitors, Adobe said, noting that the cost of a trip to the U.S. is about 10 percent higher than it was a year ago. That’s mainly due to a stronger dollar, although “confusion over (U.S. government) travel restrictions may also play a role,” an Adobe spokesperson said. In the first quarter of 2017, international flight bookings to the U.S. from abroad have fallen by 6 percent.

The eclectic Adobe report has some other interesting nuggets about travel trends – car rentals, for instance. It said that online car rentals in the first quarter of this year were down 14 percent over the same period a year ago, and it points a finger at car-sharing apps. From March to December 2016, Adobe said, social media mentions of Uber increased by 6 million, and during the same period, online car rentals fell by 28 percent – a 2 percent drop in rentals for each 10 percent increase in Uber social mentions.

Here’s where people are going. (Chart: Adobe)

Adobe also tracks destination trends by home market. For San Franciscans, the top domestic destination is Las Vegas, followed by Los Angeles and New York; and for New Yorkers, the top three are Los Angeles, Atlanta and Chicago.

And wherever or whenever you go, don’t forget to post something about your trip on social media – because everyone else does. Adobe said that every month, there are 14 million mentions of travel on social media – 1.7 times more than mentions of Justin Bieber, Katy Perry and Taylor Swift combined.

Speaking of social media, check out Chris’s Instagram feed for some nice images of his spring break in Hawaii!

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News briefs: New Avis app, PreCheck sign-ups, biz travel spend

July 12, 2016

Avis Now users can change car assignments based on real time availability. (Image: Avis)

Business travel news this week includes an announcement from Avis about some customer-friendly enhancements to its mobile app; a summer expansion of enrollment centers for TSA PreCheck membership; and the outlook for business travel volume this year and next – and who has overtaken the U.S. as the busiest business travel market.

Members of the Avis Preferred loyalty program (which is free to join) can now take advantage of new customer features on the company’s mobile app, which is available to them for iOS and Android devices. The bundle of new features, called Avis Now, includes the ability to review and change the user’s assigned vehicle at any time, based on real-time car availability; extend, cancel or confirm a reservation; flash the assigned car’s headlights to help find it on the lot, and lock or unlock its doors from the app; and return the vehicle without help from an agent. Users can also see their rental agreement, confirm fuel or mileage and get assistance on demand. The app is currently available for use at more than 50 U.S. locations, and will be expanded to some international markets in the months ahead, Avis said. (See video here)

TSA is adding some temporary PreCheck enrollment centers this summer. (Image: TSA)

Faced with a growing backlog of applications for its PreCheck trusted traveler program, the Transportation Security Administration and the outside vendor that operates PreCheck enrollment centers are opening up a number of new, temporary opportunities for applicants this summer, from now through late August. The temporary enrollment centers will be at 14 locations in 13 major markets, and will mostly be open for only a few days at each one. You can see the full schedule of locations and dates here, along with a link to a site for applying online and getting an appointment for a personal visit.

Spending by U.S. business travelers is expected to grow significantly next year. (Image: Jim Glab)

Is business travel in a slump? The Global Business Travel Association says it expects U.S. business travel spending to increase by a mere 0.9 percent this year, to $292.5 billion – but it foresees a big rebound in 2017, with a spending increase of 4.2 percent, to $304.9 billion. “When growth does re-accelerate, companies must be ready with the newest technologies, the most productive workforce and the critical customer relationships necessary to take full advantage,” said GBTA Executive Director Michael McCormick. The U.S. has been lagging behind worldwide growth levels, which posted a 5 percent spending gain in 2015, GBTA said; worldwide, global business travel spending is expected to increase by 5.8 percent annually for the next five years, to a total of $1.6 trillion in 2020. Last year, GBTA said, China surpassed the U.S. in the rankings, with business travel spending of $291.2 billion vs. $289.8 billion for the U.S.

NOTE: Be sure to click here to see all recent TravelSkills posts about: How to get the BEST summer fare deals | One airline fee fading fast | Trip Report: Aer Lingus Economy Class | 5 top jobs for frequent travelers | First class phase out coming soon

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Spring travel could be pricey & dicey

February 21, 2013

Combine a long, cold winter, spiking gasoline prices, and an improving economy. Then fold in a very early Easter and you have the recipe for what could be a very crowded and expensive spring travel season. To avoid the highest prices and the possibility of sold out flights, hotels or rental cars, those planning March trips should make reservations as soon as possible– especially if headed to popular spring break destinations from the Bay Area such as Southern California, Arizona, Mexico, Hawaii, and Rocky Mountain ski resorts.

This year, the peak spring travel season will be compact–only about three weeks– beginning on Friday, March 8 and lasting until Monday April 1. Already, advance bookings for March at Best Western’s 2000+ hotels in the US are up 8.9% compared to this time last year.

Due to an unusually early Easter (Sunday, March 31), March is going to be a month when college students, families and business travelers converge on the nation’s airports, highways and hotels. Collegiate spring break will peak in mid-to-late-March during mid-semester break. Family spring break will peak during the last week of March when most elementary and high schools close prior to Easter weekend.

To avoid the biggest crowds at airports, try to avoid traveling on weekends during the peak collegiate spring break period–from roughly March 8 through April 1. If you are flying on Fridays, Saturdays or Sundays during March, you’ll find airports in or near college campuses and warm weather destinations packed with vacationing students, creating longer lines at airport security. Also, beware of crowding and possible delays on highways and skyways on the days leading up to and shortly after Easter Sunday, March 31.

In addition, St Patrick’s Day falls smack in the middle of spring break on Sunday, March 17 this year. Travelers should expect extreme vigilance on the part of police and highway patrol when it comes to drinking and driving.

Peak spring break travel season should end on about Tuesday, April 2. From April 3 through May 23 there will be an earlier-than-normal “shoulder season”–of the best times of year to save money and avoid crowds–and one of the smartest times time to schedule business trips. During shoulder season, demand for travel (and prices) drops significantly from the highs you’ll see during the spring and summer peaks. (The summer travel season kicks off on Memorial Day–May 27– weekend.)

TIP: If you are a business traveler staying over in a resort or beachside area, ask for a quiet room away from the pool or other public areas, which may attract a rowdy spring break crowd.

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Airfares:
Since January 1, airlines attempted three across-the-board fare hikes. The first two failed. The jury is still out on whether or not the third one will stick. But don’t think that this means prices will not rise. Over the last several years, airlines have reduced the number of seats flying. At the same time, improvements in the economic outlook and consumer confidence are translating into more demand for air travel— and when you have high demand and limited supply, prices rise. Therefore, spring travelers should budget for higher airfares (up 5-10% compared to last year), and more fees.

TIP: To get the lowest fares, try to plan trips during non-peak times, such as April or May known as the “shoulder season.” Also, travelers who can travel mid-week–on Tuesdays, Wednesdays or Thursdays are also more likely to find lower fares.

Hotels:
While demand for hotels is increasing, average rates have only crept up about 5% compared to this time last year. This should be a relief for travelers who are finding that they are spending more than they’d like to at the gas pump or when buying airline tickets.

Over the last two years, hotel rates have jumped the most in large coastal cities in the US such as Boston, New York, Washington DC, San Francisco and Seattle. Rates in smaller, interior US cities remain about the same as this time last year.

Nonetheless, with the compact nature of this spring’s peak month of March, expect higher rates than normal, especially in popular warm-weather regions

Last Minute Deals:
Waiting around for last minute deals or flash sales rarely results in significant discounts during peak travel periods such as spring break.

Those who have their heart set on a specific destination in March should make reservations early in order to get the best deals. Waiting around for last minute deals is only advisable if you really don’t care where you go…you just want to get away.

On the other hand, waiting for a last minute deal makes much more sense if you plan to travel during periods of lighter demand, such as April or May, when travel providers are more likely to unload their excess inventory at big discount.

–Chris McGinnis

This item appeared first on Best Western’s youmustbetrippin.com blog for which I write.

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AirTran 3-day sale kicks off fall travel season

September 4, 2012

AirTran and Southwest launched a 3-day fall fare sale– must book by Thursday! (Photo: AirTran)

Election-year uncertainty and a weak US economy combined with higher gasoline prices, airfare and hotel rates have not deterred American travelers this summer, and healthy demand should carry on into the fall months.

Even though summer does not officially end until September 21, the fall travel season starts this week and extends through mid-November when demand begins to rise in anticipation of a relatively early Thanksgiving (Thursday, November 22).

Business travel “season” also starts this week as executives head back out on the road after summer breaks to visit clients they missed over the summer, or to attend meetings and conventions, which peak during the fall months. While there will likely be fewer visitors from economically embattled Europe, healthy demand in the US and Canada, as well as an influx of visitors from Asia are helping to counterbalance that decline.

Best Western is not a publicly held company, so it’s the only major hotel player (2,000 hotels in US) that releases valuable forward-looking data. Looking ahead, its advance bookings in the US and Canada for September, October and November are up 10% compared to this time last year. Advance bookings at airport hotels in North America, where guests tend to be predominately business travelers, are up 18%. Similarly, advance bookings at hotels located in intown areas are up 13%.

Here’s my outlook for the fall months:

Airfare: As the price of a barrel of oil approaches $100 again, airlines are feeling the impact of rising fuel costs, and in August they raised fares across the board for the fifth time this year. However, during fall months, travel demand declines compared to peak summer travel season, so travelers can expect some relief from high fares in coming months. However, the days of broad across-the-board fares sales are long gone—so smart bargain-focused travelers need to keep their eyes peeled for sales of very short duration between specific markets instead. For example, AirTran and Southwest launched a three-day fare sale this week good for trips up until October 3 only– fares are quite good, i.e., $200 between ATL and Chicago-Midway’ $254 to Denver, many Florida and Southeastern cities for about $180. Delta has matched nearly all these fares.

In the second half of 2012, airlines will offer seven million fewer seats, and nearly 3% fewer departures than in 2011, according to The Boyd Group. These reductions in airline capacity (down some 11% since 2005), combined with steady demand on the part of consumers, means that airfares during peak holiday travel seasons (Thanksgiving, Christmas, New Years) should remain painfully high.

Advance bookings for fall are up 10% at Best Western hotels like this one near San Francsico Int’l (Photo: Chris McGinnis)

But as always, heavily discounted shoulder season fares in early November, early December or early January should be available for those with the flexibility to take advantage of them. Tip: If possible, schedule business trips to coincide with these dips in demand.

Hotel Prices: Due to steady demand, hotel prices are rising, but the increases are uneven across the US. For example, travelers can expect to see significantly higher rates in large coastal cities such as New York, Boston, Washington, San Francisco or Seattle—especially during the fall months when meeting and conventions peak. However, rates in smaller, interior cities have remained mostly flat, or even declined in some cases. This variation means that average rates should increase less than 5% this fall. Tip: During fall months, travel suppliers reach out to business travelers with special deals and bonuses tied to their loyalty programs—keep an eye on blogs like The TICKET and program websites for the deals.

Gasoline Prices: The recent spike in gasoline prices is having minimal impact on travel plans in the US. In early June, the average price of a gallon of gasoline was $3.52. It then dipped to a low of about $3.30 in early July. By the end of August, it had increased rather dramatically to $3.72 according to the US Energy Administration. However, the price jump at the pump did little to keep Americans off the road for Labor Day—according to AAA, travel volume over the long holiday weekend was 3% higher than last year—up to the highest level since the recession began in late 2007. As demand for gasoline declines during Autumn, prices will hopefully decline, too.

Rental Car Prices: Rental car prices have remained mostly flat in recent years, but that could begin to change. This is due to consolidation in the industry, with only three major players left—Avis/Budget, Hertz (which purchased Dollar/Thrifty in August for $2.3 billion) and Enterprise (which now owns Alamo and National brands). Additionally, with airlines cutting service to smaller towns, demand for rental cars will increase as business travelers fly to the nearest airport, and then rent cars to drive to their appointments in smaller towns.

What about YOU? Are you planning to travel more, less or about the same amount this fall compared to last fall? Please leave your comments below.

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Online travel experiences (infographic)

August 22, 2012